Welfare threatened by kids and elderly

Regardless of political affiliation, professional training and social status, the welfare society is a general concern which is currently under intense scrutiny. Tonight, DR focusses on the municipal economy and welfare in the televised hearing Far’velfærd? (Fare’welfare?) on DR1 at 8:40 pm.

“Projections of future social development until 2040 show that population demographics will increasingly challenge our welfare state. Demographically speaking, we are facing hard times,” said Kurt Houlberg, PhD and researcher of municipal economics at the National Institute of Municipal and Regional Analysis and Research (KORA).

Senior boom

The graph above shows how the population composition has developed since 1901. Between 1901 and 2012, Denmark went from a population of 2.4 million citizens to 5.5 million.

The distribution according to age has changed significantly since the early 20^th century. In 1901, 6 per cent of the population was 65 years or older. In 2012, this figure has increased to 16 per cent. In the same time span, the share of Danes fit to work rose from 52 per cent to 61 per cent, while the number of young people between the ages of 0 and 18 has dropped from 42 to 23 per cent.

From demographic tail wind to head wind

The population distribution in the 1970s, 80s and 90s was favourable because the large generations had entered the labour market, contributing to the public purse. Now, however, times have changed.

“Back then, we had a demographic tail wind. The baby boomers born in the post-war years were old enough to work and the welfare state came at a low price,” explained Nina Smith, professor of economy at Aarhus University and member of the previous government’s welfare commission.